2026 Oscars Race Prediction
- pencil13 Mar 2026
- clock5 min read
Who will win, who should win, and who should have been nominated
This year’s Best Picture nominees lineup is the strongest in recent memory, ranging from a soul-reaching vampire musical film, to a character study of a self-mythologising hustler, to a spell-bindingly beautiful tribute to man’s interaction with nature. The horror genre sees its greatest recognition in an awards season ever, with Sinners leading in the number of nominations, and multiple horror performances leading the race for the Best Supporting categories.
As always, the Oscars race is riddled with controversies, though none as drastic as last year’s race. What made the headlines this year was Best Actor frontrunner Timothée Chalamet’s comments about ballet and opera being dying art forms that “no one cares about,” which triggered an uproar, particularly among those communities. Whether you agree with his statement or not, there is, however, a parallel to be drawn for the movie industry, especially cinemas and theaters, which are at risk of the same fate that befalls once-popular art forms that end up becoming niche.
Here are my predictions for some key categories this year - who will win, who should win, and who should have been nominated.
Best Picture
Nominees
| Bugonia | F1 |
| Frankenstein | Hamnet |
| Marty Supreme | One Battle After Another |
| The Secret Agent | Sentimental Value |
| Sinners | Train Dream |
- Will win: Sinners
- Should win: Train Dreams
- Should’ve been nominated: 28 Years Later
Best Director
Nominees
| Chloé Zhao for Hamnet | Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme |
| Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another | Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value |
| Ryan Coogler for Sinners |
- Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
- Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
- Should’ve been nominated: Clint Bentley for Train Dreams
Best Actor
Nominees
| Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme | Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another |
| Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon | Michael B. Jordan for Sinners |
| Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent |
- Will win: Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme
- Should win: Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme
- Should’ve been nominated: Joel Edgerton for Train Dreams
Best Actress
Nominees
| Jessie Buckley for Hamnet | Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I'd Kick You |
| Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue | Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value |
| Emma Stone for Bugonia |
- Will win: Jessie Buckley for Hamnet
- Should win: Jessie Buckley for Hamnet
- Should’ve been nominated: Sally Hawkins for Bring Her Back
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees
| Benicio del Toro for One Battle After Another | Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein |
| Delroy Lindo for Sinners | Sean Penn for One Battle After Another |
| Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value |
- Will win: Sean Penn for One Battle After Another
- Should win: Sean Penn for One Battle After Another
- Should’ve been nominated: Paul Mescal for Hamnet
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees
| Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value | Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value |
| Amy Madigan for Weapons | Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners |
| Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another |
- Will win: Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners
- Should win: Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another
- Should’ve been nominated: Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees
| Blue Moon - Robert Kaplow | It Was Just an Accident - Jafar Panahi |
| Marty Supreme - Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie | Sentimental Value - Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier |
| Sinners - Ryan Coogler |
- Will win: Sinners - Ryan Coogler
- Should win: Sinners - Ryan Coogler
- Should’ve been nominated: Weapons - Zach Cregger
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees
| Bugonia - Will Tracy | Frankenstein - Guillermo del Toro |
| Hamnet - Chloé Zhao, Maggie O'Farrell | One Battle After Another - Paul Thomas Anderson |
| Train Dreams - Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar |
- Will win: One Battle After Another - Paul Thomas Anderson
- Should win: Hamnet - Chloé Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell
- Should’ve been nominated: Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery - Rian Johnson
Best Animated Feature
Nominees
| Arco | Elio |
| KPop Demon Hunters | Little Amélie or the Character of Rain |
| Zootopia 2 |
- Will win: KPop Demon Hunters
- Should’ve been nominated: Ne Zha 2
Best Cinematography
Nominees
| Frankenstein - Dan Laustsen | Marty Supreme - Darius Khondji |
| One Battle After Another - Michael Bauman | Sinners - Autumn Durald Arkapaw |
| Train Dreams - Adolpho Veloso |
- Will win: Sinners - Autumn Durald Arkapaw
- Should win: One Battle After Another - Michael Bauman
- Should’ve been nominated: Hamnet - Łukasz Żal
Best Editing
Nominees
| F1 - Stephen Mirrione | Marty Supreme - Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie |
| One Battle After Another - Andy Jurgensen | Sentimental Value - Olivier Bugge Coutté |
| Sinners - Michael P. Shawver |
- Will win: F1 - Stephen Mirrione
- Should win: One Battle After Another - Andy Jurgensen
- Should’ve been nominated: Weapons - Joe Murphy
Best Production Design
Nominees
| Frankenstein | Hamnet |
| Marty Supreme | One Battle After Another |
| Sinners |
- Will win: Frankenstein
- Should win: Frankenstein
- Should’ve been nominated: Wicked: For Good
Best Costume Design
Nominees
| Avatar: Fire and Ash - Deborah L. Scott | Frankenstein - Kate Hawley |
| Hamnet - Malgosia Turzanska | Marty Supreme - Miyako Bellizzi |
| Sinners - Ruth E. Carter |
- Will win: Frankenstein - Kate Hawley
- Should win: Sinners - Ruth E. Carter
- Should’ve been nominated: Wicked: For Good - Paul Tazewell
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees
| Frankenstein | Kokuho |
| Sinners | The Smashing Machine |
| The Ugly Stepsister |
- Will win: Frankenstein
- Should win: Frankenstein
- Should’ve been nominated: Marty Supreme
Best Original Score
Nominees
| Bugonia - Jerskin Fendrix | Frankenstein - Alexandre Desplat |
| Hamnet - Max Richter | One Battle After Another - Jonny Greenwood |
| Sinners - Ludwig Göransson |
- Will win: Sinners - Ludwig Göransson
- Should win: Sinners - Ludwig Göransson
- Should’ve been nominated: 28 Years Later - Young Fathers
Best Original Song
Nominees
| Dear Me, from Diane Warren: Relentless | Golden, from KPop Demon Hunters |
| I Lied to You, from Sinners | Sweet Dreams of Joy, from Viva Verdi! |
| Train Dreams, from Train Dreams |
- Will win: Golden, from KPop Demon Hunters
- Should win: I Lied to You, from Sinners
- Should’ve been nominated: The Girl in the Bubble, from Wicked: For Good
Best Sound
Nominees
| F1 | Frankenstein |
| One Battle After Another | Sinners |
| Sirāt |
- Will win: F1
- Should win: F1
- Should’ve been nominated: Ne Zha 2
Author: Chia Jing Heng (andreusjh99)