andreusjh99 (Jing Heng)

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2026 Oscars Race Prediction

  • pencil13 Mar 2026
  • clock5 min read

Who will win, who should win, and who should have been nominated

This year’s Best Picture nominees lineup is the strongest in recent memory, ranging from a soul-reaching vampire musical film, to a character study of a self-mythologising hustler, to a spell-bindingly beautiful tribute to man’s interaction with nature. The horror genre sees its greatest recognition in an awards season ever, with Sinners leading in the number of nominations, and multiple horror performances leading the race for the Best Supporting categories.

As always, the Oscars race is riddled with controversies, though none as drastic as last year’s race. What made the headlines this year was Best Actor frontrunner Timothée Chalamet’s comments about ballet and opera being dying art forms that “no one cares about,” which triggered an uproar, particularly among those communities. Whether you agree with his statement or not, there is, however, a parallel to be drawn for the movie industry, especially cinemas and theaters, which are at risk of the same fate that befalls once-popular art forms that end up becoming niche.

Train Dreams movie still
Train Dreams

Here are my predictions for some key categories this year - who will win, who should win, and who should have been nominated.

Best Picture

Nominees

Bugonia F1
Frankenstein Hamnet
Marty Supreme One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent Sentimental Value
Sinners Train Dream
  • Will win: Sinners
  • Should win: Train Dreams
  • Should’ve been nominated: 28 Years Later

Best Director

Nominees

Chloé Zhao for Hamnet Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler for Sinners
  • Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
  • Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
  • Should’ve been nominated: Clint Bentley for Train Dreams

Best Actor

Nominees

Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon Michael B. Jordan for Sinners
Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent
  • Will win: Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme
  • Should win: Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme
  • Should’ve been nominated: Joel Edgerton for Train Dreams
Hamnet movie still
Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

Best Actress

Nominees

Jessie Buckley for Hamnet Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value
Emma Stone for Bugonia
  • Will win: Jessie Buckley for Hamnet
  • Should win: Jessie Buckley for Hamnet
  • Should’ve been nominated: Sally Hawkins for Bring Her Back

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees

Benicio del Toro for One Battle After Another Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo for Sinners Sean Penn for One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value
  • Will win: Sean Penn for One Battle After Another
  • Should win: Sean Penn for One Battle After Another
  • Should’ve been nominated: Paul Mescal for Hamnet
One Battle After Another movie still
Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees

Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan for Weapons Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners
Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another
  • Will win: Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners
  • Should win: Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another
  • Should’ve been nominated: Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees

Blue Moon - Robert Kaplow It Was Just an Accident - Jafar Panahi
Marty Supreme - Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie Sentimental Value - Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Sinners - Ryan Coogler
  • Will win: Sinners - Ryan Coogler
  • Should win: Sinners - Ryan Coogler
  • Should’ve been nominated: Weapons - Zach Cregger

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees

Bugonia - Will Tracy Frankenstein - Guillermo del Toro
Hamnet - Chloé Zhao, Maggie O'Farrell One Battle After Another - Paul Thomas Anderson
Train Dreams - Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
  • Will win: One Battle After Another - Paul Thomas Anderson
  • Should win: Hamnet - Chloé Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell
  • Should’ve been nominated: Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery - Rian Johnson

Best Animated Feature

Nominees

Arco Elio
KPop Demon Hunters Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
  • Will win: KPop Demon Hunters
  • Should’ve been nominated: Ne Zha 2
One Battle After Another movie still
And thus the greatest car chase was born

Best Cinematography

Nominees

Frankenstein - Dan Laustsen Marty Supreme - Darius Khondji
One Battle After Another - Michael Bauman Sinners - Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Train Dreams - Adolpho Veloso
  • Will win: Sinners - Autumn Durald Arkapaw
  • Should win: One Battle After Another - Michael Bauman
  • Should’ve been nominated: Hamnet - Łukasz Żal

Best Editing

Nominees

F1 - Stephen Mirrione Marty Supreme - Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie
One Battle After Another - Andy Jurgensen Sentimental Value - Olivier Bugge Coutté
Sinners - Michael P. Shawver
  • Will win: F1 - Stephen Mirrione
  • Should win: One Battle After Another - Andy Jurgensen
  • Should’ve been nominated: Weapons - Joe Murphy

Best Production Design

Nominees

Frankenstein Hamnet
Marty Supreme One Battle After Another
Sinners
  • Will win: Frankenstein
  • Should win: Frankenstein
  • Should’ve been nominated: Wicked: For Good

Best Costume Design

Nominees

Avatar: Fire and Ash - Deborah L. Scott Frankenstein - Kate Hawley
Hamnet - Malgosia Turzanska Marty Supreme - Miyako Bellizzi
Sinners - Ruth E. Carter
  • Will win: Frankenstein - Kate Hawley
  • Should win: Sinners - Ruth E. Carter
  • Should’ve been nominated: Wicked: For Good - Paul Tazewell
Frankenstein movie still
Jacob Elordi transformed in Frankenstein

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees

Frankenstein Kokuho
Sinners The Smashing Machine
The Ugly Stepsister
  • Will win: Frankenstein
  • Should win: Frankenstein
  • Should’ve been nominated: Marty Supreme

Best Original Score

Nominees

Bugonia - Jerskin Fendrix Frankenstein - Alexandre Desplat
Hamnet - Max Richter One Battle After Another - Jonny Greenwood
Sinners - Ludwig Göransson
  • Will win: Sinners - Ludwig Göransson
  • Should win: Sinners - Ludwig Göransson
  • Should’ve been nominated: 28 Years Later - Young Fathers

Best Original Song

Nominees

Dear Me, from Diane Warren: Relentless Golden, from KPop Demon Hunters
I Lied to You, from Sinners Sweet Dreams of Joy, from Viva Verdi!
Train Dreams, from Train Dreams
  • Will win: Golden, from KPop Demon Hunters
  • Should win: I Lied to You, from Sinners
  • Should’ve been nominated: The Girl in the Bubble, from Wicked: For Good

Best Sound

Nominees

F1 Frankenstein
One Battle After Another Sinners
Sirāt
  • Will win: F1
  • Should win: F1
  • Should’ve been nominated: Ne Zha 2
Sinners movie still
The single most powerful and soul-penetrating scene of the decade from Sinners

Author: Chia Jing Heng (andreusjh99)